Friday, April 5, 2013

Using history to evaluate Arroyo's 1:47.79

1:47.79 is a fast 800-meter run, and that is what Colonial High senior Andres Arroyo clocked at the Florida Relay on 4 April 2013. It's a remarkable performance, but how remarkable? I don't have as strong a feel for the 800 as I do for other distances--the mile for instance. What would be a mile time of comparable quality to a 1:47.79 800?


It's hard to come up with a valid comparison, let alone one that everyone would accept. One method, though, would be to look at the world record progressions in the two distances. Admittedly, records don't improve smoothly, and at times some events have advanced more swiftly than others, but you have to figure that the world record 800 meters in 1950 would have to be at least close to the same quality of performance as the world record mile in the same year.


So when would 1:47.79 have reigned as the world record in the 800 meters?


Britain's Sydney Wooderson lowered the world record in the 800 to 1:48.4 on 20 August 1938. This stood as the record till Rudolf Harbig of Germany ran 1:46.6 on 15 July 1939. 1:47.79 falls between those times. So let's rate 1:47.79 as having first become possible between those two dates.


At that time, the world record in the mile was 4:06.4, set by none other than Sydney Wooderson on 28 August 1937. It wouldn't be lowered till 1942. So let's rate 1:47.79 as roughly comparable to 4:06.4. Ideally, I'd sit down and use the progressions to draw two smooth curves, one for each event, expressing world bests as a function of date, and find the mile performance that corresponds with the same date as a 1:47.79 800 meters. This should give us something to talk about, though. And interestingly enough, Arroyo's recent (21 March 2013) 4:04.45 1600-meter run is the same pace as a 4:05.88 mile--quite close to 4:06.4.


Arroyo has run damn fast for 800 and for 1600. Based on history, his 800-meter performance in Gainesville is about as impressive as his earlier 1600-meter performance. As for talk about four-minute miles, well, historically that happened in 1954. Arroyo is currently about 15 years of history short of that mark.


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